Many of us witnessing inflation in the price of goods and services accept it as the result of limited supply or increased demand. However, the major cause of "inflation" these days is neither. Rather, it is a symptom of the devaluation of the dollars we use to buy these goods due to an oversupply of those dollars. Where all these dollars are coming from is the single, most important issue everyone with savings or investments must understand.
The federal budget this year is $3.51 trillion. Of this amount, $1.65 trillion is in deficit. Over 43 percent of the entire budget is borrowed. So from where are such vast sums to be found?
We can't finance the budget deficit from a trade surplus. The United States has been running trade deficits since 1976, which has only made the problem worse. In that time, America has gone from being the world's greatest creditor to becoming its largest debtor nation.
The money cannot be borrowed from other countries running a trade surplus, either. According to Bloomberg, China's 2010 surplus of $190 billion is expected to decline this year. Also, on March 8, China's leading economist, Li Yining, in his speech before the CPPCC National Committee, stated, "China should increase the size of gold in its foreign exchange reserves." They no longer want to lend us more money.
Excess revenue from Social Security taxes can no longer finance the federal budget. In the past, these funds have bankrolled over $2.5 trillion of our national debt. In 2011, for the first time, Social Security will experience a deficit in the amount of $45 billion. The Congressional Budget Office projects Social Security deficits to total $547 billion through 2021. In truth, there is not enough money in the world to finance the continuous budget deficits of the United States government. The sole option remaining is called "monetization of debt."
Consider Bill Gross. He is the founder of Pacific Investment Management Co. and manages portfolios amounting to $1.23 trillion. On March 9, Gross announced that PIMCO Total Return, the world's largest mutual fund, had eliminated all dollar-denominated bonds from its portfolio.
A leading central banker, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, called on Feb. 10 for a new global currency to replace the dollar. His voice is but one in a chorus of world leaders calling for an end to the dollar's dominant status as the global reserve currency.
When titans of the financial industry begin to openly state their disdain for Treasury debt and dollars, one can only imagine what is being discussed behind the closed doors of boardrooms across the globe. If you have ever lamented that those in the know have preserved their wealth while leaving you to sustain the losses they've gamed into the system, then consider this your memo that the investment world is about to change yet again.
